Saturday, December 6, 2008

Polar bears resort to cannibalism as Arctic ice shrinks: "Really"

It is nice how some scientists can make any picture conform to their view of reality. Case in point:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/09/23/arctic.ice/index.html?iref=mpstoryview.

Lets put a little perspective on this article. We know that the ice did not get to where it is in one day. We know that the ice has been decreasing for years; so if the fact that the ice extent is greater at the end of the melting season than this time last year is not a coincidence but an actual reversal in trend, which only time will reveal. Then this scientist's opinion that it is not in fact gain means nothing. The simple fact is that it is an increase from last year. If this year's increase over last year becomes a trend, an average increase of 9% every year would lead to an accumulation of over 400% in 40 years. Just imagine 400% of 4.67 million square km. That is 18.68 million square km in 2050. That is approximately more ice than the minimum in 1979 by about 10 million square kilometers by my eyeball of the 1979 minimum shown on the chart in the link below.

NSIDC Sea ice minimum extent 1979-2008
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html

Let's also keep in mind that it is not a decreasing rate of decline but an actual increase from the previous year. obviously, one season does not mean that things have changed. But we also need to keep in mind that we need not listen to the rhetoric of a scientist who's guess about next season's minimum can be no better than mine.

Why did the maximum for the 1979 and 2008 seasons start out so close together?

The numbers below are taken from these two sites
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2008/040708.html
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html

March 2008 Maximum extent 15.21 million square kilometers
September 20008 Minimum 4.52 million square kilometers
March 1979 Maximum extent 15.75 million
September 1979 Minimum 7.1 million square kilometers

I'm personally curious about a few things: the last 2 years the ice has experienced an accelerated rate of both warming and cooling. Why? If it was CO2 driven global warming I would personally expect an increase of warming in general and not an increase of cooling. Maybe somebody who reads this might have a good explanation for this.

I'm also curious as to why the maximums were so close for these years.

I will be watching. I'm beginning to believe that we are at the end of a long warming period and we are in for some very cold weather in the next couple of years.

We will all half to watch and see.

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